Apr 24, 2005

And one, two, three...singularity here we come!

1950s:
"One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue." -- Stanislaw Ulam, May 1958, referring to a conversation with John von Neumann

In 1965, statistician I. J. Good described a concept even more similar to today's meaning of singularity, in that it included in it the advent of superhuman intelligence:

"Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make."
1993: Vinge's essay "Technological Singularity" contains the oft-quoted statement that "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended."

2001: n his essay, The Law of Accelerating Returns , Ray Kurzweil writes: An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.


2005: So where are we now? Check the recent (April 23rd) New Scientist: Whatever happened to machines that think?
In the next few months, after being patiently nurtured for 22 years, an artificial brain called Cyc (pronounced "psych") will be put online for the world to interact with. And it's only going to get cleverer. Opening Cyc up to the masses is expected to accelerate the rate at which it learns, giving it access to the combined knowledge of millions of people around the globe as it hoovers up new facts from web pages, webcams and data entered manually by anyone who wants to contribute. Crucially, Cyc's creator says it has developed a human trait no other AI system has managed to imitate: common sense. "I believe we are heading towards a singularity and we will see it in less than 10 years," says Doug Lenat of Cycorp, the system's creator.

It is close. Every day, it gets closer. Today? Tommorow? Next decade? I don't know about you, but I *am* expecting to see Singularity during my lifetime...

2 comments:

Jason C said...

Hey, have you posted this in the Doc's Inn on the web board?

Doc and Ringo's next series is called "The von Neumann Wars". Kick ass stuff about an alien/von Nuemann probe landing in France and going from there. Coming out next year, I believe.

Piotr Konieczny said...

Nope, I haven't visited it yet. May do so soon. Von Neumann proble, interesting...

 
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